Contrarians Β· Bet big at the extremes

REPD
π§ Ascetic
The Counter-Trend Ascetic Meditating on a Falling Knife
Waits for the extreme, bets big, exits by the rule
βEven a falling knife shows its handle when you have a rule.β
RRisk-taker
Bet Posture β Sizing habit β notional dispersion, share of 2Γ bets, max bet
Bet Posture β Sizing habit β notional dispersion, share of 2Γ bets, max bet
ECounter-trend
Market Relation β Share of entries aligned with vs. against the regime of the last closed candle
Market Relation β Share of entries aligned with vs. against the regime of the last closed candle
PPatient
Tempo β Median hold time β shorter is Swift
Tempo β Median hold time β shorter is Swift
DDisciplined
Loss Handling β Loss handling β win/loss hold asymmetry, loss tail, PnL asymmetry
Loss Handling β Loss handling β win/loss hold asymmetry, loss tail, PnL asymmetry
Traits of this type
- Loads heavy notional only at extreme deviation
- Enters against the trend and waits patiently for the reversion
- Stops out by the rule β never lets the loss tail grow
Compatibility
Markets where this type is at ease vs. in danger Β· the setup Cheongsan-i uses in the same regime
Best regime
Mean reversion after overheating
Cheongsan-i setups: Extreme-deviation reversal (extreme_reversal) / Wick reversal (wick_reversal)
Nemesis regime
Fresh trend acceleration
In this regime, sizing down or sitting out is the careful choice.
The 16 Types
MeOppositeNeighbor (one letter off)
Contrarians