Contrarians · Bet big at the extremes

REPI
🤿 Diver
The Diver Who Leaps at the Bottom and Prays
Big-size counter-trend — and weak to the lure of averaging down
“I jumped in thinking it was the bottom. There was another bottom.”
RRisk-taker
Bet Posture — Sizing habit — notional dispersion, share of 2× bets, max bet
Bet Posture — Sizing habit — notional dispersion, share of 2× bets, max bet
ECounter-trend
Market Relation — Share of entries aligned with vs. against the regime of the last closed candle
Market Relation — Share of entries aligned with vs. against the regime of the last closed candle
PPatient
Tempo — Median hold time — shorter is Swift
Tempo — Median hold time — shorter is Swift
IIntuitive
Loss Handling — Loss handling — win/loss hold asymmetry, loss tail, PnL asymmetry
Loss Handling — Loss handling — win/loss hold asymmetry, loss tail, PnL asymmetry
Traits of this type
- Dives big into sharp drops — sizing varies a lot
- Enters against the trend and waits a long time for the bounce
- Holds losers long and gives in to averaging down — tail risk
Compatibility
Markets where this type is at ease vs. in danger · the setup Cheongsan-i uses in the same regime
Best regime
V-bounce after a sharp drop
Cheongsan-i setups: Wick reversal (wick_reversal) / Extreme-deviation reversal (extreme_reversal)
Nemesis regime
Trend continuation (falling knife)
In this regime, sizing down or sitting out is the careful choice.
The 16 Types
MeOppositeNeighbor (one letter off)
Contrarians