Wonyotti's Type · Cheongsan-i T-16 · 🔄 Contrarians↗ Share
Crab
RESI≈
🦀 Crab

The Sidestepping Crab: Lightning Profits, Philosophical Losses

Quick sideways, but the claw won't open — wins closed fast, losses held tight

R Risk-takerE Counter-trendS SwiftI Intuitive
2,589 trades · 549 days2018-03-01 ~ 2021-12-31Confidence High

Source: Wonyotti's public BitMEX XBTUSD account (aoa), 2018–2021 — an imported public record, not live trading.

“Losing money with a high win rate is a talent — open the claw and you're top 1%”
— Just learn to open the claw, and the whole ocean opens up.
↗ Shifting — 2nd-half letters S→P · D→I → REPI

4 Axes

The letter is the side it leans from center (50) · translucent band = 90% bootstrap CI · ≈ borderline · ? on hold

Bet PostureR 100%
C ConservativeRisk-taker R
· 90% CI 100–100
Market RelationE 53%
E Counter-trendTrend T
· 90% CI 46–49
TempoS 76%
P PatientSwift S
· 90% CI 72–80
Loss HandlingI 56% ≈
D DisciplinedIntuitive I
· 90% CI 47–68

Personality

Traits of this type
  • Sizes up with conviction — sizing varies a lot
  • Counter-trend scalps — locks in wins within minutes
  • Clings to losers far longer than winners — tail risk

Report Card

Win rate vs breakeven75.8%Breakeven 69.9% · 1963W 626L
Avg win / loss (USDT)+62,714.6 / −145,623.51 : 2.3
Median hold win / loss0.37h / 0.73hAll 0.43h
Total PnL (USDT)+31,948,439.4Net after fees
Share of 3 worst losses32.7%of total loss −91,160,339.3
Fees (0.08% round trip, measured)−619,036.5Price PnL +32,567,475.9 · 2.6% of wins inside the fee band
PnL ≤30m / >30m+1,136,704.6 / +30,811,734.71344 / 1245 trades (observation)
Median notional (USDT)276.4kp90 8890.3k · max 704710.9k
Cumulative net PnL (by exit)Last +31,948,439.4
1st half 2nd halfLow −9,145.1 · High +53,301,270.0
Halves (split 01-07) — 1st 2,195 trades +4,830,611.4 · win rate 77.3% · notional 208.6k → 2nd 394 trades +27,117,828.0 · win rate 67.5% · notional 9705.8k
Window 2018-03-01 ~ 2021-12-31 · BTC over the same period +341.2% · Funding not included

Rule-based evidence sentences and AI commentary are currently generated in Korean only — English narrative is on the way.

Areas to shore up 3

This is a profitable record — what follows are the costs and tail risks this strategy pays, not flaws. Ordered by what to watch if you copy it (critical → warning) · pre-registered rules (R01–R17)

CriticalUnrealized tailR17

승리 1,963건 중 563건(28.7%)이 MAE 1%↑ 또는 4h↑ 보유(MAE 1%↑ 367건 · 4h↑ 464건 · 최장 1294.99h) · 노출 −393,659,070.9

Rest

승리에도 시계를 두세요: 4h가 지나면 본전 스탑 또는 절반 청산. 후반 흑자(R14)는 이 꼬리가 아직 안 터진 구간일 수 있어요.

  • MAE 일부 미반영 — 승리 4건은 보유시간만 평가(5m 공백·컨텍스트 미매핑)
1,963 trades · 549 daysExposure −393,659,070.9 USDT · Potential loss exposure — excluded from mission ranking
WarningProfit give-backR11

손실 615건 중 302건(49.1%)이 +0.500% 이상 선행 후 반납 · 합 −89,870,054.0

Rest

+0.500% 도달하면 본전 스탑으로 올리세요 — 청산이 raise_sl 룰과 같은 원리.

  • 표본 내 반사실 · 과적합 주의
  • 승리 측 비용 산정 불가 — 상한 추정
615 trades · 549 daysNet recovery +44,935,027.0 USDT · Upper-bound estimate
WarningBurst daysR13

2020-11-08 6건 −737,402.1 · 2018-09-06 8건 −89,532.8(중앙 2.0건) · 60분 내 최다 16건(2018-11-25)

DateEntriesvs medianWin
11-0863.0×33%
09-0684.0×75%
03-12105.0×70%
08-08136.5×69%
12-182211.0×86%
07-1794.5×78%
12-0173.5×71%
05-242110.5×81%
08-26126.0×83%
04-19136.5×46%
12-1094.5×56%
08-1794.5×89%
04-152412.0×67%
05-2394.5×89%
04-023618.0×75%
04-032311.5×52%
07-0463.0×83%
03-134623.0×76%
04-012814.0×68%
05-1463.0×67%
05-0484.0×62%
10-1663.0×50%
03-1294.5×67%
03-22126.0×58%
03-06126.0×33%
04-07115.5×45%
03-10199.5×42%
03-11168.0×75%
03-092814.0×54%

일일 진입 상한 4건, 시간당 3건. 넘으면 그날은 관전.

  • 표본 내 반사실 · 과적합 주의
438 trades · 29 days · Holm p <0.001Net recovery +1,147,813.3 USDT
3 Worst Losses
DateSideNotionalHoldPnL
09-27SELL110088.6k606.93h−11,692,114.1
11-10BUY110869.8k1066.71h−9,925,512.1
01-30SELL350319.7k374.02h−8,194,740.8
2 observations — rules that record without judging
ObservationPeriod driftR14

전반 2,195건 +4,830,611.4 · wr 77.3% · 명목 208,608.0 → 후반 394건 +27,117,828.0 · 67.5% · 9,705,841.5

1st half · 2,195 tradesWin rate 77.3%
2nd half · 394 tradesWin rate 67.5%

후반의 당신을 유지하세요. 이번 유형은 전반 꼬리의 영향이 큽니다 — 다음 검사에서 다시 봅니다.

2,589 trades · 549 days
ObservationScalp profileR16

승리 중앙 0.370% (수수료 후 0.365%)

2,589 trades · 549 days

If You Copy It — Counterfactual Missions

Hypotheticals for readers studying this record — ranked by in-sample counterfactual net recovery (after the cost of cut wins). Not a mission assigned to the trader

Counterfactual mission · R13 Burst days
일일 진입 상한 4건
Net recovery +1,147,813.3 USDT
In-sample counterfactual · beware overfitting

일일 진입 상한 4건, 시간당 3건. 넘으면 그날은 관전.

Flip One Letter

The nearest letter
E → T

Flip just E→T and you become 🐗 RTSI Assault Captain

추세 방향 진입 +2.6pp면 E→T

Market Relation · 2.6pp to 50 · See 🐗 RTSI →
The most valuable letter
R → C

Flip just R→C and you become 🐿️ CESI Squirrel

사이즈 편차 32.2×→2.0× 이하 & 2배↑ 비율 36.9%→10% 이하 & 최대 베팅 2549.7×→4× 이하면 R→C (−50.0pp)

Bet Posture · the letter your worst weakness(R13) points to · See 🐿️ CESI →

Compatibility

Best regime · nemesis regime · opposite and neighbor types

Best Regime · Setups

RANGE retracements · high-vol scalps

Cheongsan-i setups: Wick reversal (wick_reversal) / Extreme-deviation reversal (extreme_reversal)

Best cell — sample gate not met (15 trades · 8 days · cluster)

Nemesis Regime

Fading fresh strength · fees

Nemesis cell — sample gate not met

Opposite type🚌 CTPD Bus DriverNeighbor types🐿️ CESI R→C Conservative🐗 RTSI E→T Trend🤿 REPI S→P Patient⚔️ RESD I→D Disciplined

The 16 Types

MeOppositeNeighbor (one letter off)
Chargers
Train EngineerRTPDTrain EngineerBalloon PilotRTPIBalloon PilotCheetahRTSDCheetahAssault CaptainRTSIAssault Captain
Contrarians
AsceticREPDAsceticDiverREPIDiverSwordsmanRESDSwordsmanCrabRESICrab
Navigators
Bus DriverCTPDBus DriverTurtleCTPITurtleDefenderCTSDDefenderSparrowCTSISparrow
Gatherers
OwlCEPDOwlAnglerCEPIAnglerAccountantCESDAccountantSquirrelCESISquirrel

Share Card

Cards and links carry no amounts (PnL, size) — only code, nickname, axis % and confidence

Cheongsan-i T-16 Trader Type TestRESI≈The Sidestepping Crab: LightningProfits, Philosophical LossesR Risk-taker 100%E Counter-trend 53%S Swift 76%I Intuitive 56% ≈“Losing money with a high win rate is a talent— open the claw and you're top 1%”Confidence High · 2589 trades · 549 daysCheongsan-i T-16
Honesty Box · Type Timeline — method and limits

Letters, %, strengths/weaknesses and missions are set by pre-registered deterministic rules; only the prose is written by AI. An axis is borderline (≈) when its 90% trading-day block-bootstrap interval (CI) straddles 50, and on hold (?) when the sample is short. Same data, same result.

  • 수수료는 왕복 0.00525824% 체결 실측값을 반영했고, 펀딩비는 미반영입니다
  • 판정 창(2018-03-01~2021-12-31, 청산 기준) 안의 표본만 봅니다 — 기간(시장 국면) 편향 가능
  • 창 기간 BTC +341.2% — 방향 규칙은 이 편향의 영향을 받습니다
  • 보유시간·MAE는 결과 변수입니다(증상이지 원인 아님)
  • 부분군 규칙은 사전 등록 + Holm 보정을 거쳤지만 다중비교 위험은 남습니다
  • 8h 창 지표(R07·R08·R09)는 레그 첫 진입 기준을 병기합니다 — 창 중첩 주의
  • 회복액은 표본 내 반사실 추정입니다 — 과적합 주의
  • 시장 컨텍스트 매핑 2574/2589건 — 컨텍스트 규칙은 매핑 거래만으로 계산
  • R09 제외(가져오기): 라운드트립 entry_price가 물타기 평균단가라 8h 경로 판정에 룩어헤드 — 첫 체결가 기준 45.3% vs 기준선 37.8%(2026-09-24 리포트 정정)
  • Fees 0.01% round trip (measured on fills) · funding not included · window by exit time
Market context mapped 99% · hold MAE observed 99% · 8h walk observed 99%
engine 1.1.0 · rules 1.2.0 · types 1 · context 1.1.0 · conditions a0c2f70a21 · narrative ok(claude_code:market-analyst) · generated 10-16 22:01 KST
Type Timeline
RESI12-31 12:00→REPI12-31 12:00→REPI12-31 12:00→REPD12-31 12:00→RESI10-16 22:02