30.9% vs 기준선 28.4% (레그 첫 진입 40.0%, n 40) — 우위
Cheongsan-i's Type · Cheongsan-i T-16 · 🧭 Navigators↗ Share
CTSD
🛡️ Defender
The Defensive Sniper Scalping With a Seatbelt On
Small-size scalps with the trend, rules obeyed to the letter
C ConservativeT TrendS SwiftD Disciplined
68 trades · 35 days2026-06-27 ~ 2026-09-24Confidence High
“Seatbelt's flawless; the only opponent left is fees — just widen the targets”
— One shot, confirm, withdraw. No heroes needed.
4 Axes
The letter is the side it leans from center (50) · translucent band = 90% bootstrap CI · ≈ borderline · ? on hold
Bet PostureC 98%
C ConservativeRisk-taker R
· 90% CI 1–2
Market RelationT 89%
E Counter-trendTrend T
· 90% CI 81–95
TempoS 63%
P PatientSwift S
· 90% CI 58–66
Loss HandlingD 94%
D DisciplinedIntuitive I
· 90% CI 2–14
Personality
Sentences are templated (no LLM)
Traits of this type
- Small, even notional — big bets are rare
- Scalps with the trend — holds measured in minutes
- Stops out fast and by the rule — short tail
Report Card
Win rate vs breakeven39.7%Breakeven 55.3% · 27W 41L
Avg win / loss (USDT)+0.8 / −0.91 : 1.2
Median hold win / loss1.31h / 0.90hAll 1.00h
Total PnL (USDT)−18.1Net after fees
Share of 3 worst losses19.5%of total loss −38.6
Fees (0.08% round trip, measured)−16.9Price PnL −1.2 · 11.1% of wins inside the fee band
PnL ≤30m / >30m−5.1 / −13.022 / 46 trades (observation)
Median notional (USDT)0.3kp90 0.3k · max 0.4k
1st half 2nd halfLow −18.6 · High +0.2
Halves (split 08-10) — 1st 47 trades −9.3 · win rate 40.4% · notional 0.3k → 2nd 21 trades −8.8 · win rate 38.1% · notional 0.3k
Window 2026-06-27 ~ 2026-09-24 · BTC over the same period +45.1% · Funding not included
Rule-based evidence sentences and AI commentary are currently generated in Korean only — English narrative is on the way.
Strengths 1
Keep doing these
Weaknesses 2
Critical → warning, then by impact · pre-registered rules (R01–R17)
2연패 후 23건 평균 −0.4 · 명목 1.0×
2연패면 그날 사이즈 절반, 3연패면 종료.
- 표본 내 반사실 · 과적합 주의
수수료 −16.9 vs 가격손익 −1.2 · 승리의 11.1%가 순 0.050% 미만 · 수수료만으로 진 거래 4건
익절 폭이 수수료에 붙어 있어요. 최소 목표폭 = 왕복 수수료 3배(0.240%) 또는 지정가(메이커) 전환을 시험해 보세요.
- 펀딩 미반영
3 Worst Losses
| Date | Side | Notional | Hold | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 | SELL | 0.4k | 3.83h | −3.0 |
| 06-30 | SELL | 0.3k | 0.42h | −2.4 |
| 09-22 | BUY | 0.3k | 3.73h | −2.1 |
2 observations — rules that record without judging
전반 47건 −9.3 · wr 40.4% · 명목 328.6 → 후반 21건 −8.8 · 38.1% · 325.0
승리 중앙 0.263% (수수료 후 0.183%)
Flip One Letter
The nearest letter
S → P
Flip just S→P and you become 🚌 CTPD Bus Driver
보유 중앙 1.00h→2.19h 이상면 S→P
Compatibility
Best regime · nemesis regime · opposite and neighbor types
Best Regime · Setups
Pullback, then trend resumption
Cheongsan-i setups: Pullback re-entry (pullback)
Best cell — sample gate not met (15 trades · 8 days · cluster)
Nemesis Regime
Fees (targets too tight)
Nemesis cell — sample gate not met
Opposite type🤿 REPI DiverNeighbor types🐆 RTSD C→R Risk-taker🔬 CESD T→E Counter-trend🚌 CTPD S→P Patient🐦 CTSI D→I Intuitive
The 16 Types
MeOppositeNeighbor (one letter off)
Contrarians
Honesty Box · Type Timeline — method and limits
Letters, %, strengths/weaknesses and missions are set by pre-registered deterministic rules; only the prose is written by AI. An axis is borderline (≈) when its 90% trading-day block-bootstrap interval (CI) straddles 50, and on hold (?) when the sample is short. Same data, same result.
- 수수료는 왕복 0.08% 체결 실측값을 반영했고, 펀딩비는 미반영입니다
- 판정 창(2026-06-27~2026-09-24, 청산 기준) 안의 표본만 봅니다 — 기간(시장 국면) 편향 가능
- 창 기간 BTC +45.1% — 방향 규칙은 이 편향의 영향을 받습니다
- 보유시간·MAE는 결과 변수입니다(증상이지 원인 아님)
- 부분군 규칙은 사전 등록 + Holm 보정을 거쳤지만 다중비교 위험은 남습니다
- 8h 창 지표(R07·R08·R09)는 레그 첫 진입 기준을 병기합니다 — 창 중첩 주의
- 회복액은 표본 내 반사실 추정입니다 — 과적합 주의
- Fees 0.08% round trip (measured on fills) · funding not included · window by exit time
Market context mapped 100% · hold MAE observed 100% · 8h walk observed 100%
Rules not evaluated: R04(min_n) · R12(min_n)
engine 1.1.0 · rules 1.2.0 · types 1 · context 1.1.0 · conditions a0c2f70a21 · narrative fallback · generated 09-24 02:05 KST
Type Timeline
CTSD09-24 02:05